The Masters meander - the results are in

A glimpse through time shows this tournament is won by the person with the lowest score, and that usually starts on day 1, gets cemented on day 2 and even when there looks a runaway leader on day 3 it's only the quiet stoic assassin who has held onto the coat tails since day one. Trust me it's been like this for years now. 30 of them.

When Tiger last won, 2019,  it was because Molinari, the open champ and my #1 golfer chunked a chip. He could feel the weight of history and Tiger could too. Some people are born to the masters and Patrick Reed is one. His record is phenomenal and when he took Bob MacIntyre under his wing it rubbed off on Bob who has a pretty good record for being such a novice at Augusta.

Schwartzel closed with 4 birdies to move clear and prove the lurkers wise. Norman famously bottled it against Faldo, while Spieth has chucked it too and that resulted in the quiet assassin Danny Willett (2016) stepping up. I like Danny for a top 20 but not to win it. Winners often get it around here and get a top 20. It's their best time of the year as the prize money is guaranteed to be, like the champions dinner a good laugh. This exclusive club of winners makes many of them feel good about their game. I've put a few histories up and whilst Adam Scott's got 23 years of it I don't think it's a track he loves. Patrick Reed on the other hand was manor born.

Some people feel left out and every year Rory is reminded he's not dining at the top table as the champions head up the stairs and he trudges off to hooters. I think that makes him angry and while his game is well suited to Augusta I think it's a tough ask. He can do top 20 with his eyes closed but like Justin Rose you have to ask are they getting it together or does history suggest that it's been and gone.

Both have had mixed masters fortune's since COVID and their best finishes were before the pandemic. 

Working out which history is which is easy looking at the majors won but solely on masters performance they've got a few missed cuts in them recently. Pre pandemic was the golden period at the masters for sure. I'm tipping Danny Willett this year so maybe history isn't everything as he has more missed cuts than finishes🤣

I've got a few romantic storylines that could well play out this week. I fancy all of them to be a good price for a top 20.

Tommy finally wins in the USA. Tommy Fleetwood is 33/1 or if oddschecker and you feel like opening an account 40/1. I think 25/1 for 12 places will be a good bet so I'll have some on the nose at the highest prices and the other half on the Ew. He is in good form and a track specialist.

Next up journeyman with top 20 potential and a major winner. Lucas Glover 200/1 well worth it now, like Sergio and all those other 40+ masters winners and ageing relic. His last two finishes here were T20 and T30. I think he can suprise a few. He's from South Carolina won the US open in 2009 and worth a top 12 Ew punt and a top 20 bet. I'm thinking 100/1 Ew 12 places and 7/1 top 20.

I'd love Shane, Victor or Jordan to be involved but of the other 33/1 shots it has to be Hatton. I think all 4 make the top 20.

I'd love bobby Mac to do it and a top 20 is pretty achievable so I will have an Ew top 12 but Russell Henley and Cameron Smith are also in that 50/1 bracket. Tough call. You can't back everyone so I'll leave my £1@180/1 on Russell alone and back then in a top 20 treble.

I backed Sepp Straka at 200/1 earlier this year. He's now 66/1 and like Corey conners another top 20 shu-in.

As we reach the 100/1 shelf Justin Rose and maverick McNealy 125/1 catch the eye. I fancy both for T20 easily and rose improves with age like Glover. Along with Keegan Bradley I think they should be 66/1 nearer the start 

Against Maverick McNealy is it is his masters debut, however he is the son of the billionaire founder of sun microsystems so I'm sure at the age of 29 he's made the odd trip there. The stats tell us that you have to be over 27 and frequently older golfers win here. Tell that to Scottie Scheffler who at the age of 28 has two masters victories.  The stats also tell us that few golfers have won it on their debut. Scottie was T19/T18/1/10/1. He's been top 20 the 5 times he's played here. His life is changing now but unlike Spieth I think he carries on until he chucks one. His two wins came when he dominated the field, leading after 54 holes 

I think Maverick will do well but winning is unlikely. We will certainly know if he is in with a shout after day one as the winner is usually in the top 4 and almost always a maximum of 4 shots back.

So now to the favourites and I like Collin, don't like Rory, Ludvig could break the mould while Scottie is a good favourite. All will be in the top 20 as I'd expect JT to be too but JT is also a MC risk.

I think that's me done the top 20 then, well except the 54 ie LIV players.

Top 20s or MC for Brooks, Niemann DJ and Reid. I think DJ and Brooks might be like Cam, a bit more cavalier.

Xander is the winner in waiting but I think he's a bit injured like Hideki. They could be suprise MC or get involved. I'll leave until after round one. Like DJ, Cam and Brooks they'll know what they have to do and I'm happy to wait until Friday 2am.

First round leader is usually hanging around all weekend and by Sunday a few Wannabees get some traction going in the round 4 risk reward show. By this stage, the greens are so firm and fast it really is demanding on the players and the pressure leads to volatile scoring among the top 10 as people pop back in and drop out on a hole by hole basis.

2021

Rose finished 7th after opening with a 65 when Hideki won in 2021. Rahm (66) and Reed(69) stormed through the field for T5 and T8 while Hideki hesitantly got it over the line with a 73 and a one shot lead over Zalatoris. Brian Harman at halfway showed promise but after closing 74/74 he slipped down the field to T12. It was a great tournament and last day shuffles in the betting markets were plentiful. Rahm was 4 shots behind Harman and finished 4 shots ahead on the last day alone.

The big moral for me is these guys can't win the tournament but they often fight their way into the top 5/10 from seemingly impossible positions.

2022

Im with a 67 finished T8 when scheffler won in 2022 as Rory roared to -7 with a 64 for 2nd to sneak past Shane and Cam, while poor Charl Schwartzel slumped to a 73/74 weekend finish to be tied 10th. Rory gained 10 shots on the last day over Charl, and 12 on the weekend to lead him by 7 shots. He gained 7 shots on Scottie too but it was another dead cat bounce as Scottie was 10 shots clear. I like to think Rory can do it, I think he might and that 7 shot swing shows what you can do. However Charl had a 14 shot swing on Rory in 2011 when Charl had a 66 and Rory had a meltdown 80. He popped Jason day and Adam Scott (2013) that day. We watched it in El Campello. What a great night with Stu, Simon and Iain.

In 2022, Scottie was dominant. The masters winner often are.

2023

The raging rampaging bull from the Basque country said Eskerrik-asko after donning the green jacket and lifting the trophy. Jon Rahm was pretty determined to John the growing band of major winners from the Basque country and also his fellow Spaniard Seve, from along the north coast. That Sunday it looked like him and Brooks were going to battle it out but Koepka surprisingly fell away with a 75 and Rahm's 69 saw a comfortable 4 shot victory over him and Phil who got a 10 shot swing with Brooks get him a tie with the overnight leader. Phil like Spieth(66) and Reed (68) saw Sunday glory as the moved into the top 5 at the expense of Hovland (74-T7) and Cantlay (75-T14) who finished 6 and 9 shots back. It reminded me of why backing players Ew in the masters is better if you know they'll be happy with a top 10. A lot of these guys want to win so they play the risk reward back 9 with the foot to the floor. As a gambler it means try to back the longer shots for the top 5/10 and lay the favourites. Scottie Scheffler finished with a 70. He didn't have his best stuff after a second round 75 saw him trail Brooks by 11. He knuckles down and shot 71/70 overnight then weekend. Also tied for 10th and our of it at the halfway point was Xander. Two 71's saw them 8 shots back but a back door T10 looks good in the record books.

2024

I think the first year you organise the champions dinner there's a lot of stuff that keeps you distracted from playing and it grows every year. Tournament organisers for wee tournaments do it so for the largest events it's even bigger. Bubba and Phil won their two with a gap in between while Tiger waited even longer after his first win before grabbing a few more jackets. Multiple winners often had to wait many years but Scottie didn't.

He got into the box seat firmly and just did what Scottie does. Glide through the gears and while Ludvig on his debut chased him he would finish 7 shots clear if the three tied in third place Tommy, Max and Collin.

Pavon had a solid debut for a T12 and caught the eye as someone who will not play too many risk reward games. Also T12 Reed was also 12 shots back but a stoic last round saw him sneak up a few places. Last year Min Woo and Keegan tied for 22nd with 69's along with English (71), Scott (72) Rory (73) Niemann (73) Fitz (75) and Cantlay (76). They were 15 shots back and credit to them for coming out on Sunday but as a support act, it's the equivalent of 9am at Glastonbury. If you had laid Rory for a top 20you were a happy boy🤣

This year sees Rahn and Scottie battle it out again on a stage so well suit for them. Pugnacious Pat Reed will doubtless poke a few fingers as the PGA piglets fire up the BBQ.

It's a sensational story with a Trumpian tariff to tell. Will the winner need to spend the money in Georgia, Texas, the USA or can they take it offshore.

So my wishful thinking and gambling final positions

1. Straka or Fleetwood 

2. Scheffler morikawa, Hatton

5 Straka or Fleetwood 

6. Rahm, Shane, Reed 

9. Keegan, Lucas, Ludvig, Maverick, 

14. Bob, Connors, Willett, Neimann JT, Spieth, Cam, Rose, Henley, min woo, day, woodlands 

Tied 25+ Rory, Cantlay Scott Hideki,Sergio, Charl , DJ, Xander Bryson, Willy Z, Fowler, Clark 

So the magic answer is now out. Rory had more double bogeys than any other winner picking up 4, including 2 in the final round. It is undoubtedly the ultimate definition of pressure that turned into stress for the last 12 years. Absolutely delighted for him and I've called him a bottle for at least the last 10 years and said 6 years ago he would never win another major because the pressure had turned into stress. His emotional release was palpable and guaranteed his name on the Sports personality trophy come December. Like Monty he'd mentally moved towards the team environment of the Ryder cup and found he could respond under pressure when it was for his pals. 

I'm delighted for him as that level of stress as I witnessed in St Andrews was so sad to see. Seeing Cam Young blast a driver and get eagle to force Cam to hole for a birdie ahead of him I think mentally he just couldn't cope and I'd recommend retirement for his mental health until he recovered. This gorilla on his back had grown to a ridiculous size and it did feel like he was being made to look like a punch drunk boxer not sure if the bell had gone.

It's brilliant and I now think he'll win quail hollow and go into the Open looking for 3/4 or possibly the grand slam. He is a generational talent tormented by the call of history. When you have all the money you need it's fairly obvious. A sports personality needs status that they recognise and for Rory that means sitting alongside Jack and Tiger, not in the pack.

He has the time and the stress has gone. I think he could go wire to wire at the PGA and that will be the best. Foot to the floor and a very large lead by the back nine Sunday. Scottie won't take it lying down but like many a new father he will prioritise his family over golfing immortality. The thing about golfing immortality is you're never around to see it.

Rose led well and like Rory showed a lot of bounce back bottle just when you thought it had crashed 

Pugnacious Pat (-3) finished third on 9 under 71-70-69-69 and was the safest bet I've ever made but my report card does look a bit less good thereafter.

My best bet was past winner Zach (-1) Johnson turning back the clock and getting involved to the level that he played with Ros(-6)e on the last day. My 400/1 for a tied 8th was one shot off a T7 with Aberg on 6 under that would've paid £300 for the place. He joined Schauffele, Day and Connors the latter two sliding out of contention in the closing holes.

The final day was one of massive movements from the also rans.

Harris English (-4)made it into the top 12, tied 12th with Max Homa who is clearly a green jacket winner soon. Homa opened with a 74 which is how he's been playing but followed it with 70-69-71 and that's amazing considering how shit he's been recently. He'll be delighted because he must be slipping down the Ryder cup rankings. Bubba Rahm Spieth T14 while Riley, Fleetwood Berger and Hideki (-6) all hit last round scores to T 21.

Another notable for next time was Brian Campbell who was -4 for T32. 72-73-76-68 won't get him an invite but he may be good enough next year anyway. It's a good debut 

The missed cuts and the weather was a bit of a factor. It was colder this year and wet. Some anticipated a birdie fest as the greens would be receptive but pins were suitably tucked away.

Henley leads my deep sadness at not making the cut but a few others were fairly predictable.

Cabrera Lawrence Kent on 155, Dunlap opened with a 90 before a 71 got him some pride back.

It's not a course to be too aggressive until you know it. Risk rewards are everywhere